Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Strategy?

I've spent a lot of time in the past month thinking about my game, and THE game in general. Basically, I've read a lot of books, have subscriptions to Card Player and Bluff, read lots of blogs, and play a fair amount online and live. Despite all of this knowledge (or maybe because of it), I'm going through one of the roughest stretches I've ever experienced in my 5 years or so of playing cards. For the first time I'm experiencing failure after having had an incredible run. Between July and November last year I ran my online bankroll (OBR) from about $200 to about $2000, playing a combination of cash games and tournaments. Since January, I've run my OBR almost completely in the opposite direction and experienced some trouble in live games as well. In particular, I haven't had a winning casino trip yet this year, including a trip north of the border to Niagara Falls. It seems that the big hands just don't go my way (I can remember several particularly brutal runner-runner suckouts and 5 outers that hit to take away $400+ pots). Sure I have $360 of equity from those pots, but equity doesn't fill the bankroll.

So, that's a long introduction to this post, where I'm starting to think about rebuilding my game from the ground up. As with anything else, you need a foundation when rebuilding, so I'm looking for a foundation. An overarching theme to my play. A principle that will guide my decisions and keep me from being too big of a donkey. As I've thought about this, it seems so simple. In poker you make money in one of the following ways:

1. You put money into the pot when you have the best hand AND a hand worse than yours calls.

Even if you offer them great odds to call, you still make money in the long run. If you are an 80-20 favorite, you have 80% equity in any additional dollar that you put in the pot, plus the 80% equity in the pot itself, right? Obviously if you are playing optimally, you will offer the villain the wrong odds to draw to his 20%. But even if you offer the right odds for him to draw, you still retain that 80% equity because you're going to win 80% of the time. Thus, putting money in the pot when a hand worse than yours will call is one way to make money playing poker.

2. You call when you have the right odds to do so.

If you have an 80% chance of winning a hand and the pot is $100, but you only bet $10, and I only have to call $10, then I make money. It's not that you are losing money, you still have 80% equity in any money that goes in to the pot. But I make money by calling because I will win $100 one out of 5 times and it only costs me $10 to take that shot. Over the long term, I'll win enough to offset all the times that I lose and then some. So I make money over the long run by calling when the odds are appropriate to do so.

3. Getting a better hand to fold.

This is where bluffing comes in. By getting a hand better than yours to fold, you win money because your opponent is forfeiting their equity in the pot. This is probably the most profitable move in poker because you are essentially winning when you aren't supposed to. Of course, it is also the most dangerous move, because if you get caught, you are usually in really bad shape.

4. Folding when you get the wrong odds to continue and you can't make someone with a better hand fold.

Basically, any time you are in a negative expected value situation, you should fold. Whenever you can't bluff your opponent AND they have a better hand than you, you should fold. You win money in this way by limiting your losses. Instead of losing $100 on a hand, you might lose $10. That $90 that you could have lost, but didn't, is chips that are still in your stack that you don't have to replace. That's as good as a win.

So what does all of this mean for my strategy. Well, it boils down to the actions available to you at the table.

Bet or raise - I should be doing this if I am either ahead and think that a worse hand will call or behind and think that a better hand will fold.

Check - I should be doing this if the reasons for betting or raising don't exist, but nobody has forced me to call or fold yet.

Call - I should be doing this if I am behind, but getting the right odds to draw.

Fold - I should be doing this if I am behind and getting the wrong odds to draw with no prospect of making a better hand fold to a raise.

It's all pretty simple, right? Well, one of my leaks right now is that I make bets with hands where it is unlikely that a better hand will fold or a weaker hand will call. For example, on a limped K44 rainbow flop, if I have K6, I frequently bet (right now). But what weaker hands to I expect to call? K5, K3 and K2 and some middle pocket pairs are the only weaker hands that might call. Larger pocket pairs probably raised pre-flop and aren't out there. So basically, my bet allows everyone to play optimally against me. The better hands most likely call because in a limped pot someone flopping top pair is probably not giving up that easily, meaning KQ through K7 are calling. But the weaker hands, are probably folding. It's not a perfect example, but it's a situation where checking is probably superior to betting.

So the foundation of my cash game has been laid out. These are the guiding principles that will hopefully find me on my way to cash game glory online, and when I hit up Vegas in about a month.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Clarification

So in my last post I mentioned that I was disenchanted with poker. Since then I've had a few conversations with some of the guys I play cards with and I've gained a little clarity on what I meant. You see, at the time I made the comments the home game I host each week had been cancelled due to a lack of interest a week or two in a row and I hadn't been able to put together any good sort of run playing online cash games (or live ones for that matter). Here's a little history too:

I started playing 4 or 5 years ago (or maybe longer) which puts me squarely in the Moneymaker Generation of poker players. Unlike alot of those guys, it took me a while before I discovered online poker. First it was Poker Room, then Full Tilt, with small accounts on Ultimate Bet, PokerStars and Bodog (so I could bet on sports). The first online tourney I played I finished second for about $300 and thought I was king of the world. Then, last year, I had a great run from June until December or so. In that timeframe I finished 6th in a preliminary event of the Borgata Summer Open, had a good run in casino cash games, and proceeded to run my online bankroll from $400 to over $2000. Obviously such success doesn't always continue. And that's how we arrive at my disenchantment. I think there are a few clarifications I need to make, and some factors that are probably involved. I'll make the clarifications first, then discuss the factors (hope you're making a long visit to the can because this could take a while).

First, I want to clarify that I'm not disenchanted with poker entirely. I'm not one of these guys who took a bad beat and has sworn off the game entirely, or someone who has blown their bankroll (although I've come close) and now isn't allowed to play. In fact, I've really enjoyed playing cards lately, just not online.

That brings me to my second clarification, I'm not completed turned off to playing online. B'more's Brawl is an immovable appointment in our household. Both myself and Momx2 make sure that the kids are in bed or headed that way on Wednesday nights so we can play. I've enjoyed some of the other tourney's I've played lately.

Which leads me to my last clarification and the beginning of the factors. I think I'm really just frustrated with the online cash games. I have struggled to put together a good run playing cash games for about 3 or 4 months now. Maybe it's variance catching up with me, maybe its me playing poorly, or some combination of the two. Maybe it's me not paying enough attention to what I'm doing (I do have a .15-.30 6 max deep stack game going while I write this and I just got AA). But I have another theory and it has to do with UIGEA and the vanishing of services to help you get money online and the vagaries of the laws surrounding online poker. I bet you never thought you'd be reading about this stuff when you first started reading this, but stick with me. Here are the factors that I think contribute to this theory. (By the way, I just got AA again, I lost a small pot with them the first time to K-9 off suit when he made a straight).

1. It is more difficult to get money online right now than it ever has been in the past. Neteller is gone. FirePay is gone. ePassporte is gone. So when you go busto, how do you replenish your account? If you really care about playing, then you find a way, but if you're a casual player, you move on to something else.

2. Unless you've been following the legislation concerning online poker, you probably don't know if its legal or not. There is a common misconception that UIGEA made playing online poker illegal. My understanding is that it did not, rather it made it illegal to deposit money into an online gambling site. In other words, the gambling itself may be legal or illegal depending on local statutes, but it's the transfering of money that was the focus of UIGEA. If I'm wrong on this I'm sure some attorney will point it out, just proving again that we have too many attorneys with not enough to do. The upshot of this is that many casual players are not playing because they are uncertain about whether they are breaking the law or not. And who wants to see Daddy hauled away in handcuffs because he was playing 5 cent-10 cent NL Hold'em?

These two factors lead to my theory. Because it's tough to get money online, and because there is uncertainty about the legality of playing, the online game has become tougher, particularly at the lower stakes, in the past few months. What I believe has happened (and I have not basis for this theory other than the logic I'm about to present) is this:

Casual players had a few bucks in an online poker account. They continued to play occasionally with that online bankroll. They'd gamble it up when they felt like it and generally just have a good time passing the time playing cards online. Eventually their lack of skill catches up to them and they miss one too many flush draws, felting their online poker account. After a few failed half-hearted attempts to load money through the ever changing list of services, they decide it's too much trouble and give up. And slowly all the fish are out of the pond leaving only a few types of players.

A) The pussycats - They are down to their last $100 online and aren't going to go broke for anything. They wouldn't chase a flush draw if you paid for them to do it. They are so tight that the only way you're getting their money is on some runner-runner miracle.

B) The grinders - What differentiates these guys from the pussycats is that they aren't down to their last $100, but that's because they play conservatively and try to avoid big losses. This is why they are still able to play online and they intend to keep it that way. They are slowly trying to build up their bankroll and working their way up the ladder. 20 buy-ins isn't enough for these guys, they need 40 before they think about playing higher.

C) The sharks - These are the guys that ate up the bankrolls of the casual players who "just like to play some cards." They have dreams of going pro, winning the WSOP (or the Sunday Million). They are just plain good.

Now, I know this isn't everyone who's out there in the online pond, but I think it classifies the folks who are most affected by UIGEA and the ones who are making the low limit online games more difficult. Frankly, UIGEA is like an algae covering the surface of the pond and killing all the fish. Hopefully it will be repealled and the pond will once again be filled with fish. To support the Poker Players Alliance, who is lobbying for pro-poker legislation, go to the link on my page. They'll send you a cool shirt and add you to their mailing list. If you care about poker and the return of the fish, you'll do it.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Who do you look up to?

It's been a while since I've posted, mostly its because for the first time in a while, I have been a little disenchanted with poker. For example, I've only played 3 or 4 days on Full Tilt since my last post, and most of those have been due to Bmore's Brawl. I think my psyche needed a break from grinding out small pot win after small pot win, only to see all that hard work go down the drain when my 1.5 times the pot all-in on the turn gets called by a gut shot draw with two overs that don't matter......and he hits.......again. So, due to the miracles of modern technology, I've been shooting at bad guys from all over the globe playing Call of Duty 4 on Xbox and playing less poker.

All of that being said, I have been recently inspired by one particular player. This guy was recently highlighted in Bluff Magazine as someone who "plays the game right." He has as many bracelets at the legend, Johnny Moss, and has been a force on the poker tournament scene since the late 80's. He is one of the few who holds a WSOP bracelet and a WPT title. On top of that he has already won more than $1.8 million in 2008. Despite all of these accomplishments, he is still most famous for bluffing off all of his chips in one immortalized hand. One of his best friends is possibly the most successful poker player/businessman (not to be confused with a businessman/poker player). He is feared and respected by anyone who knows poker, but is known by few who aren't serious poker fans. When poker players sit around the table and debate who is the best player in the world, his name rarely comes up, but his accomplishments trump nearly all of the players who's names do come up.

Of course, I'm talking about Mr. Erik Seidel. In an era when flash is worth more than cash at the table, Seidel has quietly put together a resume that is more impressive than many of the names we idolize. Quick, who has more bracelets, Ivey or Seidel? Who has won more money in tournament poker Men the Master, Scotty Nguyen or Seidel? And yet he is most famous for bluffing off his chips to Johnny Chan in the one real poker scene in Rounders.

What do I like about Erik that has me returning to the tables with a renewed sense of purpose? Well first of all, he has gone about winning without being loud like Hellmuth, over-promoted like Negreanu, idolized like Ivey, or revered like Brunson. For the ESPN buffs, remember the line about Chris Carter, the Vikings WR? All he does is catch touchdowns! Well, all Seidel does is win at poker. He doesn't dance, he doesn't sing, he doesn't whine. He just wins.

And so I am returning from my brief hiatus with the resolve to just win. I'm going to do everything I can to take ego and entitlement out of my game. I'm going to focus on making good decisions and having a long memory regarding those decisions, but a short one regarding the results. When I win I will be pleased, but not elated or excited. When I lose I will be disappointed, but not angry or upset. When Aces get cracked, well, that happens, on to the next hand. I've seen enough in my time playing this game that nothing should surprise me. I've also seen enough to know that if I'm playing my "A" game, I can beat most of the people I play against over the long run. So bring on the gut shot draws, two outers on the river, heinous flops, terrible turns and miracle river cards, they won't disturb my inner "Seidel" as I play my best and go home with some cash...

Monday, March 24, 2008

The Second Horsey Ride

If you read this and don't realize that its the second results post, you might think that I had just re-posted week one's results. As it turns out thebmorekid has more than just beginners luck, and successfully defended his Horsey Ride title from the first week. Not only that, but hslaw is proving to be a great bridesmaid as he finished second for the second week in a row. Newcomer toilets took 3rd place and yours truly was the bubble boy.

Interesting notes from week 2

crazydiggity set a land speed record for exiting a limit event. He was out in ten hands and obviously had something better to do on Sunday evening. Maybe there was a special Desperate Housewives that I wasn't aware of...

Hold'em (3 KO's), Stud Hi-Lo (2 KO's), and Omaha Hi-Lo (2 KO's) were the games that caused the most devastation.

hslaw was the primary executioner, taking out 4 of the 10 players who entered.

We had two new entrants this week, BlueHen226 and toilets, both OM Rounders who have occasionally made it to the weekly cash game.

Tune in next week to see if thebmorekid can pull off the three-peat and if I can get on the board.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

The Horsey Ride

Tonight we had the first Horsey Ride, a private tournament for OM Rounders and their friends. We had 12 players show up to test the full range of their poker skills. Proving that innaugural tournaments are his speciality, thebmorekid took it down. Proving that in-depth knowledge of all the games isn't required, hslaw06 took 2nd and spoiled a father-son duel between thebmorekid and 3rd place finisher xojones.

Other noteable events from the first Horsey Ride:

mind27 was the first player to bust out. Mr. Piccalino got him on the last hand of Stud Hi.

xojones was the biggest executioner of the tourney, taking out 4 players, including the tournament host, yours truly.

Players were busted in each of the games, 3 in holdem and 2 each in all of the other games.

Hopefully all the OM Rounders who played had a good time. This event will be played each week on Sunday at 9:30 p.m. If you are reading this blog and are interested in playing, leave a comment and I'll get back to you.

Friday, March 7, 2008

People just like you and I are out there...

Maybe this should be titled "People just like you and ME are out there..." and I'm sure someone will correct me on it. If that's how you spend your time, correcting obscure blogger's gramatical errors, then I hope you have a high paying job and can afford to pay your friends.

To make my point, there are a bunch of us who like to publish our frequent bad beat stories and rare successes on this thing that Al Gore invented. Just check out the Battle of the Bloggers on Full Tilt Poker. I had no idea that such a thing existed, then thebmorekid tells me that there is a series of 5 tournaments a week for 13 WEEKS!!!! And all it is are tournaments hosted by bloggers for the right to be named king of the bloggers (and go to the WSOP main event). I don't know about you, but being named King of the Bloggers is kind of like being named the best one-legged hooker. I mean, take a look at the population you're being compared to. But alas, I am a blogger by virtue of the fact that I type my thoughts into this computer and publish them on the internet for any random passer by to read. From what I've seen, there aren't many random passer's by, but I'm having some fun anyway.

Since my posts from the last few weeks have sounded about as exciting as the waning moments of Leaving Las Vegas, I should let you know that I cashed last night in my 2nd Battle of the Bloggers tournament. Now keep in mind, I didn't win any money, but I did get points, and as thebmorekid says, "points are all that matter." I don't know if I agree with him, but I lasted longer than him and jmlabrie18, the only other two Bmore Brawlers or OMRounders in the event. So that's gotta be good for something, maybe a toy from a cracker jack box or the free newspaper they keep delivering to my house. But it's something, right?!?!?

Anyway, this weekend is crazy, fantasy baseball draft and poker tournament on Saturday followed by the SHOW on Sunday. I'll post something else about the SHOW, but it is hands down, the best home game rebuy tournament I've ever played in and it's filled with enough donkeys to take you, your family, and your distant relatives down to the bottom of the Grand Canyon and back.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Lots going on, not much poker

I'm not playing as much as usual, which admittedly is quite a bit. I had a conference in Nashville last week for work that took up 3 full days. For the record, I was at the Gaylord Opryland and that place is the biggest hotel I've ever been in that didn't have a casino. I probably could have organized a game with a bunch of people I work with, but after giving it some thought, I decided that drinking until closing for three straight nights was a better idea.

So I get home from the conference, and two days later, our offer on a house is accepted. Now, we weren't looking to move, but this was a deal that was too good to pass up. So the past few days have been spent feverishly getting our house ready to go on the market. If you know anyone who's looking for a house just north of Baltimore, please post a comment on this blog. I know there are only two people reading this, so I'm not counting on anything, but hey, a guy can hope, right?

So that has kept me from my usual diet of online poker almost nightly and live games at least once a week. This upcoming weekend is my fantasy baseball draft combined with a fun poker tourney. I might also get in a game on Thursday night, or possibly get into kibl's tourney on Sunday. Nothing like a $80 rebuy tourney with 50+ of your closest friends.

As you will see from thebmorekid's blog, my showings have not been that impressive in the brawl and my wife, Momx2, is ahead of me on both the money and KO lists. I hope to improve on those numbers this Wednesday, but I just don't feel like I've been running that well. I know its a self fulfilling prophecy, so I just need to take a step back and stop thinking that way. Hopefully this little unplanned break will give me the perspective I need.