Thursday, April 24, 2008

Clarification

So in my last post I mentioned that I was disenchanted with poker. Since then I've had a few conversations with some of the guys I play cards with and I've gained a little clarity on what I meant. You see, at the time I made the comments the home game I host each week had been cancelled due to a lack of interest a week or two in a row and I hadn't been able to put together any good sort of run playing online cash games (or live ones for that matter). Here's a little history too:

I started playing 4 or 5 years ago (or maybe longer) which puts me squarely in the Moneymaker Generation of poker players. Unlike alot of those guys, it took me a while before I discovered online poker. First it was Poker Room, then Full Tilt, with small accounts on Ultimate Bet, PokerStars and Bodog (so I could bet on sports). The first online tourney I played I finished second for about $300 and thought I was king of the world. Then, last year, I had a great run from June until December or so. In that timeframe I finished 6th in a preliminary event of the Borgata Summer Open, had a good run in casino cash games, and proceeded to run my online bankroll from $400 to over $2000. Obviously such success doesn't always continue. And that's how we arrive at my disenchantment. I think there are a few clarifications I need to make, and some factors that are probably involved. I'll make the clarifications first, then discuss the factors (hope you're making a long visit to the can because this could take a while).

First, I want to clarify that I'm not disenchanted with poker entirely. I'm not one of these guys who took a bad beat and has sworn off the game entirely, or someone who has blown their bankroll (although I've come close) and now isn't allowed to play. In fact, I've really enjoyed playing cards lately, just not online.

That brings me to my second clarification, I'm not completed turned off to playing online. B'more's Brawl is an immovable appointment in our household. Both myself and Momx2 make sure that the kids are in bed or headed that way on Wednesday nights so we can play. I've enjoyed some of the other tourney's I've played lately.

Which leads me to my last clarification and the beginning of the factors. I think I'm really just frustrated with the online cash games. I have struggled to put together a good run playing cash games for about 3 or 4 months now. Maybe it's variance catching up with me, maybe its me playing poorly, or some combination of the two. Maybe it's me not paying enough attention to what I'm doing (I do have a .15-.30 6 max deep stack game going while I write this and I just got AA). But I have another theory and it has to do with UIGEA and the vanishing of services to help you get money online and the vagaries of the laws surrounding online poker. I bet you never thought you'd be reading about this stuff when you first started reading this, but stick with me. Here are the factors that I think contribute to this theory. (By the way, I just got AA again, I lost a small pot with them the first time to K-9 off suit when he made a straight).

1. It is more difficult to get money online right now than it ever has been in the past. Neteller is gone. FirePay is gone. ePassporte is gone. So when you go busto, how do you replenish your account? If you really care about playing, then you find a way, but if you're a casual player, you move on to something else.

2. Unless you've been following the legislation concerning online poker, you probably don't know if its legal or not. There is a common misconception that UIGEA made playing online poker illegal. My understanding is that it did not, rather it made it illegal to deposit money into an online gambling site. In other words, the gambling itself may be legal or illegal depending on local statutes, but it's the transfering of money that was the focus of UIGEA. If I'm wrong on this I'm sure some attorney will point it out, just proving again that we have too many attorneys with not enough to do. The upshot of this is that many casual players are not playing because they are uncertain about whether they are breaking the law or not. And who wants to see Daddy hauled away in handcuffs because he was playing 5 cent-10 cent NL Hold'em?

These two factors lead to my theory. Because it's tough to get money online, and because there is uncertainty about the legality of playing, the online game has become tougher, particularly at the lower stakes, in the past few months. What I believe has happened (and I have not basis for this theory other than the logic I'm about to present) is this:

Casual players had a few bucks in an online poker account. They continued to play occasionally with that online bankroll. They'd gamble it up when they felt like it and generally just have a good time passing the time playing cards online. Eventually their lack of skill catches up to them and they miss one too many flush draws, felting their online poker account. After a few failed half-hearted attempts to load money through the ever changing list of services, they decide it's too much trouble and give up. And slowly all the fish are out of the pond leaving only a few types of players.

A) The pussycats - They are down to their last $100 online and aren't going to go broke for anything. They wouldn't chase a flush draw if you paid for them to do it. They are so tight that the only way you're getting their money is on some runner-runner miracle.

B) The grinders - What differentiates these guys from the pussycats is that they aren't down to their last $100, but that's because they play conservatively and try to avoid big losses. This is why they are still able to play online and they intend to keep it that way. They are slowly trying to build up their bankroll and working their way up the ladder. 20 buy-ins isn't enough for these guys, they need 40 before they think about playing higher.

C) The sharks - These are the guys that ate up the bankrolls of the casual players who "just like to play some cards." They have dreams of going pro, winning the WSOP (or the Sunday Million). They are just plain good.

Now, I know this isn't everyone who's out there in the online pond, but I think it classifies the folks who are most affected by UIGEA and the ones who are making the low limit online games more difficult. Frankly, UIGEA is like an algae covering the surface of the pond and killing all the fish. Hopefully it will be repealled and the pond will once again be filled with fish. To support the Poker Players Alliance, who is lobbying for pro-poker legislation, go to the link on my page. They'll send you a cool shirt and add you to their mailing list. If you care about poker and the return of the fish, you'll do it.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

FYI - the Act only made it illegal for the websites to accept deposits. There is nothing in there making it illegal for the player making the deposit.